Every card page shows a fair valueread: where the current price sits versus what the card has actually been trading at, with a confidence level. This page explains how we get there, and just as importantly, what we don't claim.
Fair value is our estimate of what a card is worth right now, drawn from several independent reference points:
We combine whichever of these are available and lean on their consensus, so no single bad input can skew the result. We also discard outright outliers, a penny auction, a fat-finger sale, or an aggregate that has drifted far from the live market (usually stale data, not a real mispricing).
For raw (ungraded) cards, we focus on Near Mint sales. Raw sales land in one bucket that mixes conditions and is polluted by graded slabs and multi-card lots leaking in, so we keep only the comps that line up with the Near Mint market.
The gauge places the current price on a scale from undervalued to overvalued. A card trading close to fair reads fair; meaningfully below reads undervalued, meaningfully above reads overvalued. The neutral band widens automatically when the data is thin, so a thinly-traded card won't shout a verdict off a couple of noisy sales.
The signal-strength bars on the gauge show how much real trading backs the read:
Low-confidence reads are muted and never display an extreme verdict. When we can't form a trustworthy fair value at all, we show nothing rather than a number we don't believe.
We don't predict prices.Fair value is descriptive: it tells you whether today's price is high or low versus recent trades. It is not a forecast of where the price is going. We tested whether our data could reliably predict future returns and it couldn't, so we don't pretend otherwise.
Chase cards are a known limitation. Alt arts, secret rares, and other chase cards command a collector premium that sits outside traditional value. For those, a comp-anchored fair value is inherently a loose guide, and we flag it as such on the card.
Prices refresh daily. Read these reads as a well-grounded starting point for your own judgment, not as financial advice.
